The 2020 election is approaching quickly, and as voters prepare to cast their ballots, one big question many people have is: What would a win for Donald Trump or Joe Biden mean for my wallet? To answer that question, WalletHub prepared a pair of reports examining the potential outcomes: What If Trump Wins? and What If Biden Wins?
For each report, WalletHub examined what’s likely in store in nine key categories including personal and corporate taxes, unemployment, education, health care, the response to COVID-19 and more.
If Trump wins:
Personal Taxes: Extend individual provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) until 2035. No tax rate change.
Corporate Taxes: Extend business tax breaks in the TCJA.
Stock Market: Historically, the S&P 500 has grown at a 6.18% annual rate with a divided Congress.
Unemployment: Create 10 million new jobs in 10 months, create 1 million new small businesses.
Education: Create single income-driven student loan repayment plan, cap monthly payments at 12.5%.
Social Security: Reduce welfare spending particularly on SNAP and TANF.
Health Care: Spending cuts over the next decade to Medicaid (-$900 billion) and Medicare (-$450 billion).
Minimum Wage: No change, leaves the decision up to the states.
COVID-19: Delegated primarily responsibility for COVID-19 response to states, with federal government as back-up.
The Trump administration’s 2021 budget proposal requests a 7.8% decrease for the U.S. Department of Education from 2020.
Social Spending: Reduce welfare spending, particularly on SNAP and TANF. Eliminate the Social Services Block Grant.
Payroll Tax: Suspend employee-side 6.2% Social Security payroll tax from September 1 until the end of the year.
Cost-Of-Living Adjustments: Elimination of the cost-of-living adjustment for current and future retirees. 0.5% cut to the COLA for Civil Service
Retirement System participants.
Benefits: Overhaul federal disability programs and improve Social Security payment integrity. Modify government contribution rates to federal health benefit programs and reduce retirement benefits for federal employees. Provide paid parental leave.
Health Care Spending: Spending cuts over the next decade to Medicaid (-$900 billion) and Medicare (-$450 billion).
Cost Reduction: Enact comprehensive drug pricing reform. Lower healthcare insurance premiums. End surprise medical billing.
ACA: Supports ACA repeal and lawsuit to overturn the ACA. Coverage Expansion Cover all pre-existing conditions.
Medicare: Reduce Medicare payments for uncompensated care, post-acute care, hospice care, and hospital-owned physician offices, among others.
Medicaid: Implement Medicaid community engagement requirement. Enable CMS to recoup improper payments and continue Medicaid Disproportionate Share Hospital allotment reductions.
If Biden wins:
Personal Taxes: Higher tax rate (39.6%) for people who make $400,000+.
Corporate Taxes: Increase the top corporate income tax rate to 28%.
Stock Market: Historically, the S&P 500 has grown at a 13.84% annual rate with a divided Congress.
Unemployment: Create 10 million clean energy jobs, spend $400 billion on “Buy American” initiative.
Education: +$1.9 trillion on pre-K, K-12 and higher education, triple Title I funding.
Social Security: 12.4% Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) tax to earnings above $400,000.
Health Care: Expand ACA and introduce a public option.
Minimum Wage: Increase minimum wage ($15/hr.)
COVID-19 Response: Give Federal government primary responsibility for COVID-19 response.
Health Care Funding: + $727.5 billion effect on federal budget deficit. Increase rural health and mental health funding.
Cost Reduction: Improve affordability of long-term care. Address the opioid crisis through flexible grants to states and localities. Allow drug negotiations and restrict launch prices. Limit drug price growth and further lower drug costs. Impose tax penalty on pharma companies that raise drug costs by more than the rate of inflation. End surprise medical billing.
ACA: Expand the Affordable Care Act and introduce a public option.
Coverage Expansion: Automatically enroll low-income individuals into premium-free coverage. Coverage Expansion Revenue Feedback. Eliminate the 400% income cap on tax credit eligibility and lower the limit on the cost of coverage to 8.5% of income.
Medicare: Lower the Medicare eligibility age from 65 to 60 years old.
Medicaid: Maintained in current form.