By Katie Castellani
Prediction markets have splashed into election projections.
Kalshi and Polymarket, two of the biggest prediction markets, both show Gov. Maura Healey has an overwhelming chance of winning reelection over her GOP contender Mike Minogue.
The predictions, which can change quickly based on wagers, show the candidate’s odds of winning. As of 9 a.m. on Sept. 21, Kalshi showed Healey had a 94% chance of winning to Minogue’s 6%. At 8 p.m. on Sept. 20, Polymarket showed Healey had a 95.5% shot of victory to 4% for Minogue.
The forecasts align with those outside of prediction markets like The Cook Political Report, which provides non-partisan political analysis and race ratings based on a scale from “toss up” to “solid” in favor of a major party. The site listed Massachusetts as one of 13 states where a Democrat has a “solid” chance of winning the gubernatorial race this year, meaning the races in those states “are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested,” according to Cook Political Report’s website.
The site says its ratings are based on several factors like a state’s political makeup, national and state political environments, interviews with candidates and campaign professionals as well as candidates’ strengths and weaknesses. Prediction markets’ odds are based solely on trade activities. Massachusetts is still waiting on a Supreme Judicial Court decision in a lawsuit the state brought against Kalshi alleging the prediction market is essentially running as an unlicensed sportsbook.
