NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook has been released and it shows how El Nino will likely influence the upcoming winter months (December 2026 to February 2027), with warmer-than-average temperatures expected across the northern U.S.; wetter-than-average conditions likely across the southern U.S., from California to Florida, and along the Eastern Seaboard; and drought improving for the majority of the country, including areas in the East, Southern Great Plains and Southwest.
“As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Nino will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides. Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter.”
Temperature Outlook
- Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored for northern California, the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, much of the East, Alaska and for Puerto Rico / U.S. Virgin Islands.
- Near-normal temperatures are most likely for parts of the Southeast including Florida.
- Hawaii and much of the Southwest have equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average seasonal mean temperatures.
Precipitation Outlook
- Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the southern tier, from the Southwest to the Southeast, and along the East Coast.
- Elevated odds for drier-than-average conditions for Hawaii, much of Alaska, the northern Mountain West, some areas in the Great Lakes and the western Pacific Islands.
- Areas in the Intermountain West, northern Plains, Ohio Valley and Puerto Rico / U.S. Virgin Islands have equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average seasonal total precipitation amounts.
