Markey Cruises to 19-Point Lead Over Moulton in Mass. Senate Poll—But Pressley Could Slash It to 7

By Michael Norton

Sen. Edward Markey holds a 19-point lead over U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton in the race for the seat Markey holds, but the polling numbers tighten up with U.S. Rep. Ayanna Pressley in the race.

University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB polling results released Monday show Markey as the choice of 44%, with Moulton at 25% and former teacher Alex Rikleen at 5%. Of those polled, 25% were unsure.

With “leaners” included in the results, Markey leads Moulton 51% to 28%.

Markey, Moulton and Rikleen are already running for Senate. Pressley has not indicated her 2026 plans, but the survey showed how she stacks up right now if she were in the Senate race.

With Pressley in the contest, Markey’s lead over Moulton shrinks to 7 points, 31% to 24%, with Pressley at 20%. The poll’s margin of error for the Democratic primary questions is plus or minus 6.1%.

The dominant word attached to Markey, 79, in a word cloud put together by pollsters was “old,” followed by “good,” “experienced” and “liberal.” The largest word in Moulton’s word cloud was “unknown,” a reflection of the challenge inherent in developing a connection with voters who live outside the 6th Congressional District that the Salem Democrat represents. Other dominant words in his cloud were “unsure” and “good.”

Pollsters also tested out a six-candidate open race field without Markey. In that hypothetical, Moulton led with 26%, followed by Pressley at 23%, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu at 17%, former U.S. Rep. Joseph Kennedy III at 9%, U.S. Rep. Jake Auchincloss at 5% and Rikleen at 3%.

The poll was conducted by YouGov and involved interviews with 800 adults from Massachusetts, 416 of whom were likely Democratic primary voters. The sampling frame was a politically representative “modeled frame” of Massachusetts adults, the pollsters said.

The questions about Democratic primary and potential primary candidates were asked only of Democrats and “pure independents” who indicated that they would participate in the Sept. 1, 2026 primary election.

The poll also queried respondents on election reforms that have failed to make it through the Legislature which has resisted the push to open up registration and voting opportunities in the days leading up to an election.

Sixty-five percent said they support allowing people to register to vote and cast their ballot on Election Day, with 17% opposed. Asked about allowing people to register to vote and cast their ballot during the early voting period, 71% said they supported that change and 12% opposed it.

Thirty-seven percent supported allowing people currently serving a prison sentence to vote, with 41% against. Asked about requiring all voters to show government-issued photo identification to vote, 61% supported that idea with 21% against it.

Survey takers also weighed in on approval of disapproval of the way that Markey and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren are doing their jobs.

Markey’s approval/disapproval split was 54-28, compared to 54-31 in the same poll conducted in October 2024. Warren’s split was 57-35, compared to 53-38 in the poll a year ago.