In new poll, Massachusetts voters against income tax cut ballot initiative when given new information on the measure

BOSTON — A new poll of Massachusetts voters released today by MassINC Polling Group found that when voters learn more about the income tax cut ballot initiative, they oppose it.

According to MassINC Polling Group, “voters initially favor the ballot question to lower the state’s income tax from 5% to 4% over the next 3 years, but many turn against it when told it would reduce funding for the state budget while sending most of the benefits to the state’s wealthiest residents. On first ask, 66% of voters plan to vote yes on lowering the income tax. After further information that drops to 40%, with 50% planning to vote no.”

“Polling on ballot questions can be extremely volatile, with many voters open to changing their minds when given new information,” said Richard Parr, Vice President of The MassINC Polling Group, who conducted the poll. “If the income tax question goes before voters, this polling shows that what voters know about its full effects could have a dramatic impact on the outcome.”

Multiple studies confirm that the income tax cut initiative would overwhelmingly and disproportionately benefit the state’s richest residents. Research from MassBudget found that while the state’s richest 1% of taxpayers would receive an average annual tax cut of $31,600, or $608/week, the bottom 80% of taxpayers would receive an average annual tax cut of $534 — just $10/week. A study by the business-backed Tufts University Center for State Policy Analysis found that millionaires (those making over $1 million a year) would receive an average state tax cut of $37,421 if the initiative passes. That’s 30 times greater than the tax cut for middle-income taxpayers (those making $75,000 to $200,000 a year), who would receive an average state tax cut of $1,267. And it’s 542 times greater than the tax cut for low-income taxpayers (those making under $25,000 a year), who would receive an average state tax cut of just $69.

After the poll results were released, the Protect Massachusetts’ Future ballot committee who is against the initiative, released the following statement:

“The campaign to slash the state’s income tax is falling apart in front of our eyes. Last week, we learned that the poorly-drafted ballot initiative would have the unintended consequence of eliminating the state tax deduction for charitable donations. Then, the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation came out against the income tax cut, showing that most business leaders in the state don’t support this reckless attack on our state’s finances and working families. In a hearing earlier this month, the Supreme Judicial Court raised serious questions about whether the initiative meets the constitutional requirements to appear on the ballot. And now, public polling shows a clear path to beating the initiative on the ballot if it even makes it that far. We’re fully prepared to fund and fight that battle, and confident that once voters learn how an income tax cut would devastate local schools, healthcare and other public services while delivering the largest tax breaks to the ultra-rich, they’ll firmly reject it.” — Harris Gruman, Chair of Protect Massachusetts Future and Executive Director of the SEIU Massachusetts State Council.

The Massachusetts Opportunity Alliance, who is in favor of the income tax cut, argues that the Bay State is losing residents to more affordable states and the measure would deliver more money to taxpayers and benefit the state’s long-term economic growth.

MOA also states that their research reaches a different conclusion concerning the reported $5 billion hole the tax cut would create in the state budget, “finding this policy would have a modest impact on state income tax revenues in the phase-in years, and also help our economy grow faster long-term.”

MassINC Polling Group states that the poll results are based on a survey of 800 Massachusetts registered voters, including an oversample of 200 voters living in the original 11 Gateway Cities (Brockton, Fall River, Fitchburg, Haverhill, Holyoke, Lawrence, Lowell, New Bedford, Pittsfield, Springfield, and Worcester). Voters were contacted using conventional registration-based sampling procedures. Responses were collected from March 12 – 17, 2026, via live telephone interviews and via text message invitations to an online survey. The oversampled cities were weighted separately and then combined in proportion with the rest of the state. Responses were weighted by race, age, and gender, education, political registration and identification, geography, and vote history to reflect known and estimated population parameters for Massachusetts registered voters. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 4.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, inclusive of the design effect. The survey was conducted by The MassINC Polling Group. These questions were sponsored by Transportation for Massachusetts and the Massachusetts Voter Table.